Managing Expectations

No one's making predictions it seems...

Clinton Campaign



“We’re all kind of guessing about what it’s all going to mean because it’s never happened before,” Clinton said. The New York senator said she found it all “intriguing and somewhat mystifying."

Obama Campaign



Obama said a “split decision” was likely. “I don’t think today’s going to end up being decisive,” the Illinois senator said.

Obama vs. H. Clinton - Obama 1 Clinton 0

From Obama's speech today in Denver:

"Democrats will win in November and build a majority in Congress not by nominating a candidate who will unite the other party against us, but by choosing one who can unite this country around a movement for change," Obama said, speaking as rival John Edwards was pulling out of the race in New Orleans, leaving a Clinton-Obama fight for the Democratic nomination.

"It is time for new leadership that understands the way to win a debate with John McCain or any Republican who is nominated is not by nominating someone who agreed with him on voting for the war in Iraq or who agreed with him in voting to give George Bush the benefit of the doubt on Iran, who agrees with him in embracing the Bush-Cheney policy of not talking to leaders we don't like, who actually differed with him by arguing for exceptions for torture before changing positions when the politics of the moment changed," Obama said....

"I know it is tempting — after another presidency by a man named George Bush — to simply turn back the clock, and to build a bridge back to the 20th century," he said in Denver.

"... It's not enough to say you'll be ready from Day One — you have to be right from Day One," he added in unmistakable criticisms of Clinton, who often claims she's better prepared to govern, and her husband, who pledged during his own presidency to build a bridge to the 21st century.

Source

Ouch.

No more Mr. Nice Negro I see.

So whatcha got to say now Ms. Dowd?

Funny Comment of the Day

What are the Clintons doing now?

1. Hillary is fussing at Clinton. "After Monica, you promised me the White House."

Wahington Post Article on Why Black Folks Love Affair With Clinton is Nearing it's End

Black America Feels the Sting of Ex-President's Comments

By Darryl Fears
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, January 25, 2008; A08

For nearly two decades, Yvette Wider, an African American, adored Bill Clinton, once described by a famous black novelist as the nation's first black president.

But now, after Clinton's "fairy tale" remark about Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) in New Hampshire and a statement in South Carolina that Obama had put a political "hit job" on him, Wider said she feels she hardly knows the former president. "I was surprised to hear him make a comment like that, because I thought he understood our people better," said Wider, who said she will vote for Obama in Saturday's South Carolina primary. "It made me think he's been playing us all this time."

Wider's sentiments are echoing across black America -- on blogs, Web chats and talk radio, where Clinton is being attacked as never before.

It is a significant turnabout for Clinton, who throughout most of his presidency counted black people as his staunchest supporters. Less than eight years ago, African Americans gave the former president a stratospherically favorable rating -- higher than those for Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton.

With his attacks on Obama, however, that appears to be changing, causing some strategists and observers to wonder whether Clinton's behavior will alienate black voters whom his wife, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), will need should she win the nomination.

"The tone of some of the things he said just crossed a line," said David Bositis, chief researcher for the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a black think tank. A 2000 survey by Bositis showed that 91 percent of African American respondents had a favorable view of Clinton. Bositis said he doubts that the number would be as high if the survey were conducted today.

n a South Carolina attack ad, the Clinton campaign used part of an Obama quote to suggest that he supported Reagan administration policies as economically sound. But Obama criticized the policies as hurtful later in the statement.

"I never said anything disparaging about him or the reality of his campaign," Clinton said about the fairy tale remark. "It's a brilliant campaign, and this is an example of how brilliant it is. It rests on a false premise. I wasn't trying to be sneering or derisive. I was trying to think of a kinder characterization of his argument."

John Stevenson, a former school superintendent in South Carolina, said the remark upset him but not terribly. "I'm very impressed with Senator Clinton," he said. "I think Bill did an awful lot as president."

"People say a lot of things when they're embroiled in battle, and often they wish those things hadn't been said," Stevenson said. "I think I wish he hadn't said it."

Others are not as forgiving.

Anthony Peppers, a buyer for a manufacturing firm who lives in South Carolina, said Hillary Clinton's reputation among black voters will suffer for her husband's outbursts.

"I'm offended, because I thought she would not have dipped to this level," Peppers said. "You think she didn't agree for him to do that? If you have someone that close to you saying that, then it's her. She's got to live with it."

Wider's views were even sharper. "He can identify with us as much as he wants, but unless you're black, you don't know as much about it," she said. "I guess he's part of the old-boy system, too."

Clinton attempted damage control while appearing on Sharpton's radio show. "I think he clearly was hurt by it," Sharpton said of the criticism. "I think part of his legacy is having a good relation ship with African Americans, and he didn't want to go down in history as having broken that relationship."

Tom Joyner, whose syndicated radio show is among the most popular on black radio stations, recently released a statement criticizing Clinton after an appearance by the former president. "When he spoke this morning, some people thought he was saying, I've done so much for black people, how dare you question me?" Joyner said.

Even with the criticism of Clinton, however, some in the black community believe that it will make little difference. Black voters will overwhelming support the Democratic nominee, no matter who it is, they say.

"I don't think the Clintons are the enemy to most black people," said Melissa Harris-Lacewell, an associate professor of politics and African American studies at Princeton University. "If Hillary succeeds, black people are going to vote for her. They might not be excited."


Yeah. We'll see about that.

Those in Glass Houses....

This is Rezko. The Slumlord Hillary has been bashing Obama with.


This is her denying that she ever knew this man when confronted with the picture on the Today Show by Matt Lauer.




This is me laughing my ass off.

Barack Obama: Why White Folk Just Don't Get It

Two articles. Two White men. Two folk who just don't get it.

Ready Aim Fire

The End of the Obama Revolution

Now before you keep reading this post you need to read those articles.

No I'm serious.

- (me doing a jig while you read) -

Alright. The first piece is a problem for two reasons

1. It doesn't fully call Clinton on his racist bullshit. He refers to their tactics as their "war room." As if their attacks are completely above board and par for the course. He does admit that their attacks have the potential to alienaate specific groups (Blacks and youth) that could cost her in the genral election.

2. He expects Obama to "rise above the fray." Yeah. About that rising above the fray. How'd that work for Kerry? And Obama is in an even more precarious position because of his color.

The Clintons are trying to turn him into the Black guy who is running fro president and if Obama doesn't fight back then he gets tarnished with the Black brush and voters will start to wonder if what the Clintons are saying is true since he didn't take the time to defend himself.

Swiftboating anyone?

The second article is a problem becomes it asumes that only the Hispanic voting bloc is racist:

Among Hispanics, who in some states make up a larger contingent of voters than African-Americans, Obama has encountered strident resistance. Sergio Bendixen, a pollster working with the Clinton campaign, recently told the New Yorker: "The Hispanic voter -- and I want to say this very carefully -- has not shown a lot of willingness or affinity to support black candidates." Based on this logic, an Obama victory in South Carolina, where every second Democratic voter is black, would be more than offset by an Obama defeat in California, a much larger state that is dominated by whites and Hispanics. Staffers within the Clinton campaign are referring to the Hispanics as their firewall.

What he doesn't note when referring to other groups that he says aren't warming to Obama, women, blue collar workers and older people there is a race component as well. Obama has been polling well among blacks in most of those demographics (those without a high school diploma notwithstanding). So the idea that he's on the outs with ALL of these groups is misleading. It's mainly White people in these demographics he's not polling well against.

So making Hispanics (who are also White) the racist bogeyman is telling and misleading. The article reads as if Hilary has tapped into these groups and race (or gender) isn't a factor at all in making the decision on who to vote for. Coming away from this article you'd think Blacks voted strictly because Obama's Black. Hispanics vote for Hilary because Obama's Black. And everyone else (including women) vote Hillary based on the issues.

Like I said. They just don't get it.

A Commenter Nails It When Describing the Russian Roulette the Clintons are Playing With the Black Vote and Ultimately The Democratic Party

From Group News Blog in reply to comments being made by myself and others that because of the Clinton's antics HRC will NOT be getting our votes:

I agree with JJ and moonglum on the not voting for Hillary issue.

People need to understand the seriousness of this.

It's not that black folks don't care about the Supreme Court or progressive programs but you have to understand for many blacks what the Bill Clinton has done (and yes I say Bill because this fight is more about him than Hillary IMHO and you know damn well he is behind every single nasty remark that has come out) is a betrayal first as a friend and second as a fellow Democrat.

Many of us considered the Clintons family, not me personally but I have family members and friends who loved him. Not agreed with him. Not liked his policy programs but loved the president because culturally and socially he was the first president that was close to us.

As Mrs Robinson wrote downthread, a charming smart guy who grew up poor in Arkansas raised by a single mother, tormented by a drunken father who overcomes the odds to make his way North for a better life is resembles to many of the stories of our own families. (Especially older relatives who were part of that migration of blacks from the south so many years before) We related to Bill in a way we never could to people like JFK and RFK because they were the product of rich families.

He might not have had the same skin color but superficially he was about as close as he could get. And for black folks who saw Jesse run and fail and had their hopes dashed then and assumed that they would never have anyone remotely close to them with a real sniff at the Whitehouse, Bill Clinton was a great substitute for the real thing.

The other endearing thing was he was a Democrat who many other Dems of his generation fought for our civil rights. Hell he even had a picture of is teenage self shaking JFK's hand! And maybe after years of Reagan and Bush we would have someone we could trust to continue that legacy.

Bill Clinton wasn't just a president he was family.

So we voted for him, vociferously defended him while many whites Dems were breaking ranks voting for the GOP and impeaching him not only in Congress but in the court of public opinion. And because Bill was family we also willfully ignored how he didn't deliver for us as he said he would. We stayed true to him through everything. We never even thought of straying from the party and it's ideals the way some many others had since 1980.

So to sit here and see staffers, surrogates, and Bill rip apart a black man using pages from the GOP playbook is about the worst thing politically many of us have seen not because we haven't seen it before but the source is a person that we gave unconditional trust to.

To see fellow Dems make excuses for the behavior is shocking to the system too. Read sites like Dailykos and see the real shucking and jiving some folks are doing to not only defend this crap but turn it around and say blacks in the party need to STFU. I never thought in my life I would hear the uppity nigger STFU line by another Dem. NEVER.

So yes we are pissed and we are going to stay pissed because the candidates, Howard Dean and many people in the party don't seem to give a shit.

So tell me what are my real choices? What choice to do we have but to stay home and not vote or do something more drastic like leave the party all together if Hillary wins the nomination when no one will take our concerns seriously or they pull out some argument about Supreme Court nominations changing the subject entirely?

Now I know some will think I am politically naive but what people outside the black community do not seem to understand is the first and I would argue largest reason we don't vote for the GOP is the GOP's racism. Not it's policy but simply the sickening way they choose to treat us.

I know I'm going to shock some folks here but us blacks no matter how much we like to say we are different than whites in many ways aren't. We've got homophobic religious evangelical fanatics too (thus Obama's speech on MLK day about homophobia in our community). We've got rich money grubbing assholes too (see Robert Johnson). We've got opportunistic bastards running our churches who are influential in our community who would endorse Satan in a political campaign if they thought it would get them money and political power (see all the pastors in 2004 who couldn't get on their knees fast enough to suck up to Bush).

We've got all the political diseases whites have and they are largely masked by the fact that the GOP's racism is so repellant that all these groups are FORCED to stick together for our own survival.

And the danger that LM didn't touch upon too much is what happens when that line of racial hatred between the Democrats and the GOP becomes blurred. Forget folks staying at home over Hillary on election day. Think of the total destruction of the Democratic party as blacks leave to vote for the GOP.

And yeah I know the first response to that is "The won't do that they'll be voting against they're own interest." So what? White folks have been doing that for nearly 30 years now. Like I said we aren't all that different from whites and some of are are craven and stupid enough to do it.

And yes it will be total destruction because blacks ARE the Democratic party. We ARE the left in this country. We ARE the stability of the party and have been for a long time.

And you Dems need us. To be more precise you need that 90% of our votes that we've given you in election after election.

Remember Rove's permanent majority? Part of the strategy was peeling off black votes. Just maybe 10-15 % and the Dems would never win another election again.

Think about that. Think about that as Clinton and his bullies keep pissing us off and giving younger blacks like me more and more reasons to say fuck it and stay home in Nov or do worse.

The Clintons are playing a game of racial Russian roulette. And they will keep pulling the trigger over and over again. And they don't worry about being shot because the gun isn't pointing at them but all of us.

Are you going to take a bullet for them?

- baltogeek

He then goes on to say:

My mom's thinking about voting for McCain if he gets the nomination as are some of my other relatives and friends.

I have others who are just demoralized and ready not to vote for anybody.

I know my post was really long but the short of it is that if the Dems through their own infighting and failure to address the issues surrounding may be pushing some of us in the direction of the GOP or not participate at all.

And as for numbers? I'm not Latino so please someone correct me if I'm wrong but IIRC Latinos in this country have spread their vote out between the two parties with the Dems with a slight majority.

Despite the rhetoric of both parties we've had tight political races.

If the Dems need 90% of the black vote to win (or lose) by a squeeker what happens if that vote is 75 or 80% which it very well could be if Hillary wins the nomination?

Are you assuming Latinos are going to vote in those kind of numbers? They haven't so far as far as I've seen and they may not in the future.

Look, I'm not going to pretend to be a expert on Latino politics or where they stand between the GOP and the Democrats but all things staying equal the Democratic party will be fucked if blacks stop giving them their votes whether we are the largest minority or not. It's not about ALL of us saying "We're taking our ball and going home" but enough of us to really screw things up. That's the danger I'm talking about that noone seems to understand or dismisses as being unreal.

And as for the DTV analogy, I'll give you one of my own.

I have a friend who has digital cable. He got it while they were advertising one of those specials where you pay a low rate for a few months before they jack it up to a much higher one.

Everytime he gets close to the end of that low rate they give him a call about extending his service he gives them some spiel (sp?) about how a satellite dish looks good and he saw a lower rate somewhere else and you know what? They keep him at his low rate.

Why? Because of competition. Because even in cold-hearted businessmen know that even at a lower rate it's better for them to get your money than have it go somewhere else.

The Democratic infighting may produce a competition for black votes for the first time in forever.

Do Democrats know that it's better to keep blacks rather than ignoring us and giving us reasons to leave?

I don't think anyone wants that.

- baltogeek


I couldn't have said it any better myself. I will NOT be voting for Hillary for the aforementioned reasons. And it's important to note that Black folks don't vote Republican so much based on policy (I do but I know that for many that's not the reason) but for their BLATANT RACISM.

We know "they" don't like us and have done everything they could to screw us so we vote Dem. But what happens if this is election is what brings the naked racism out in the Democratic party? Then what? Contrary to popular belief Black folk ain't stupid and we won't be so inclined to vote Democratic if we recognize we're just as abused, mistreated and dismissed under them.

For a LONG time I've been very vocal about the fact that I'm not a die hard Dem. I bear them no love and because of what I considered there similarities to the Republicans became politically apathetic until Obama won the Iowa Caucuses. While I have no intention of becoming politically apathetic again but if HRC gets the nod I will do everything in my power to organize a Don't Vote Day or if McCain is the nominee send Black vote voting for him (I'm not a McCain fan but right now I despise HRC more).

This is a personal betrayal. And like Baltogeek I was not a member of the "Bill Clinton is the first Black President" club but I recognize his success came on the back, belief and loyalty of many Black folk and for him (and his wife) to indulge in the stench of race warfare and to see the "liberal" establishment basically shrug off and ignore our concerns...well, my momma always said you teach people how to treat you and I'm real determined to teach the Clintons (and the Democratic party) a lesson they will be hard pressed to forget.

Obama Grows a Pair

So someone decided to stop being Mr. Nice Guy. That's nice. And I understand the tightrope he's walking. He doesn't want to be the Angry Black Man beating up on the Defenseless White Woman. "Tis a problem. Brothers have been lynched for less. But at some point he was going to have to get dirty because Mr. and Mrs. Slick Willie have no intention of letting up.

Theme of the Clinton Campaign and all Their Black Surrogates who are Aiding in Harpooning Obama

Rove Talks Shit About Hillary's Michigan Primary Win - Oh it Just Keeps Getting Better and Better

Damn Tricky Dick We Got Mrs. Slick Willie and Her Dirty Bag of Tricks

Hmmm....

Looks like Hillary Clinton is trying to win this thing come hell or high water and isn't going to let any little thing such as ethics or DNC rules get in her way.

1. The Michigan and Soon the Florida Primary

By now we should all know that Hillary "won" Michigan. But with her name being the only major democratic name on the ballot and only garnering 55% of the vote (compared to the 40% who voted uncommitted), I'd hardly call hers a win decisive.

However. If Hilary was really playing fair (or by the DNC rules) she would have taken her name off of the Michigan ballot since their delegates are "not" going to be seated at the convention. At least that's what the DNC said the punishment was going to be for Michigan (and Florida) for moving their prmary up in the schedule against the DNC's wishes.

Recently Obama accused Hilary of campaigning in Florida against DNC rules regarding the FLorida Primary. Well, instead of saying "Of course I'm not doing that since it is against the rules." She said,

While Senator Clinton will honor her commitment not to campaign in Florida in violation of the pledge, she also intends to honor her pledge to hear the voices of all Americans. The people of Michigan and Florida have just as much of a right to have their voices heard as anyone else.

That doesn't soud like a woman who's going to abide by er council's rules and not campaign in state that (technically) has no delegates.

Now why would Hilary be shilling in a state with no delegates to be seated? Well Attytood has it's theories:

What if the primary season ends and none of the candidates have enough votes for the nomination -- unless you seated the delegates from Michigan and Florida?

Hmm. What if indeed. He goes on to say,

The process would be fraught with peril for the Democrats. Would they really not seat the delegates -- and risk offending voters and losing Florida and Michigan to the GOP in November? But what if seating the two states swung the balance of delegates from Obama to Clinton? Would African-American voters bolt the party over such a slight, penalizing the would-be first black president after he had played by the rules? (I think they would, frankly).

Who said 08 was going to be business as usual.

Dirty Trick #1: We'll call this the State Shake-N-Bake.

2. Teachers Sue to Block Hotel Workers' Union Vote in Nevada Caucus

LAS VEGAS — Nevada’s state teachers union and six Las Vegas area residents filed a lawsuit late Friday that could make it harder for many members of the state’s huge hotel workers union to vote in the hotly contested Jan. 19 Democratic caucus in Nevada.

The 13-page lawsuit in federal district court here comes two days after the 60,000-member Culinary Workers Union Local 226 in Nevada endorsed Senator Barack Obama, a blow to Mrs. Clinton. Mr. Obama addressed the Culinary Union at their hall earlier Friday.

The lawsuit argues that the Nevada Democratic Party’s decision, decided late last year, to create at-large precincts inside nine Las Vegas resorts on caucus day violates the state’s election laws and creates a system in which voters at the at-large precincts can elect more delegates than voters at other precincts. The lawsuit employs a complex mathematical formula to show that voters at the other 1,754 precincts would have less influence with their votes.

The at-large precincts are being established because thousands of hotel workers cannot leave work to participate in the midday caucuses in their home precincts. The Nevada State Education Association has said it would not endorse any Democrat, but some of its top officials have endorsed Mrs. Clinton. The association’s deputy executive director, Debbie Cahill, for instance, was a founding member of Senator Clinton’s Nevada Women’s Leadership Council.

So "technically" these are Hilary supporters and not the Clinton campaign itself. But when the decision was made last May to allow the hotel workers to use the casinos as caucus sites no had any objections. Of course back in May Clinton was the consensus front runner and was guaranteed the Culinary Workers Union endorsement.

Oh what a difference a few months make.

Dirty Trick #2: The Caucus Bait and Switch

3. It's a Race About Race - But No Not Really- Those Were Just Slips of the Tongue
By now I'm sure all are familiar with the Race Baiting that's been going on by the Cinton campaign against Senator Obama. Recently a truce was called though I don't know what Obama was trucing against since he didn't start the mess.

To keep track of all the "slips of the tongue" you can check out the Clinton Attacks Obama Wiki over at Jack and Jill Politics.

Dirty Trick #3: Will call this one the (Race) Freudian Slip


Hilary has learned well from Slick Willie on how to play politics. Who said the sexes were that different. Seems like in the game of politics men and women are more alike then not.

Black Folks May Not be Falling for the Okie Doke After All

Potentially troubling news for Clinton in Michigan 'win'

CNN) — Hillary Clinton faced a grim statistic in Michigan tonight, despite her primary "win" there: results revealed that she may have reason to worry about her grasp on the African-American vote.

Even so, roughly 70 percent of Michigan’s African-American voters — a group that makes up a quarter of Michigan’s Democratic electorate — did not cast their votes for Clinton, choosing the “uncommitted” option instead. Yet these voters weren’t uncommitted at all: in fact, according to CNN exit polls, they overwhelmingly favored Barack Obama, whose name did not appear on the ballot.

Had Obama’s name been on the Michigan ballot, CNN exit polls show that he would have won an overwhelming 73 percent of the African-American vote, in contrast to 22 percent who say they would have voted for Clinton under those circumstances. If South Carolina’s large African-American community votes as Michigan’s, Hillary may not be feeling much ‘southern hospitality’ in that state.

Source

Black vote not looking so safe now huh Mrs. Clinton? Might actually have to stop pandering to black folk and come up with some real policies and initiatives on what you're actually going to do for Black folks.

Hmm-hmmm. Might want to rethink the race baiting as well. Doesn't seem to be playing well with one of your core constituencies.

How Black are They Now?

Look who's playing the Race Card.



Why it's no other then the "First Black President's" wife (does that make her the first black First Lady?), Hilary Clinton. Jack and Jill Politics has been keeping a running tab on the various "isolated" racial slips of the tongue that keep coming from the Clinton camp.

After Bill Clinton's call to Al Sharpton's radio show regarding his "fairytale" comment regarding Obama's run for President, Hilary Clinton goes on Meet the Press to say how Obama has mis-characterized her MLK/LBJ comments.



Black votes ain't looking so secure now are they? This is what happens when you go giving folk Black passes but they then find themselves threatened by the very folk who worshiped them. LOL. How's your Black president looking to you now?

Someone get Andrew Young on the phone.

Gender Does Not Trump Race

By now we've all read (or heard about) the Ny Times Op Ed piece written by Gloria Steinem on why Obama had a lead in the New Hampshire polls (she didn't have much to say after Clinton won). Alternet.org jumped into the fray with their article Gloria Steinem Debates Racism and Sexism in the '08 Election. In the comments section of the article a poster leaves this comment:

I have to say that I find self serving this comment made by Steinem

"That's why the Iowa primary was following our historical pattern of making change. Black men were given the vote a half-century before women of any race were allowed to mark a ballot, and generally have ascended to positions of power, from the military to the boardroom, before any women (with the possible exception of obedient family members in the latter). "

The reality which a great many white feminists ignore is that white women have more money, power, and access to the institutions of society than any color of man.

The hierarchy of power in this country looks like this..

white men, white women...men of all colors...women of all colors

White men..the true holders of all reigns of power have always been more allied to white women that ANY color of man.

Within each group and for the society at large the patriarchy prevails but the reality is that white women have had greater access to power and rescources both as a group and through their association with white men.

The primary beneficiaries of post 60s redistributive programs have not been black men but white women.

There are currently 16 female Senators..all white. There is 1 Black senator. Guess who that is?

Of the fortune 500 there are 13 women...again all white. There are 4 black CEOS.

Even when you control for the population bias the facts dont bear out her assertions. Particularly interesting is the result when you combine race and gener..and there are zero non white women in either category.

In terms of the vote lets not forget that during the suffrage movement white women gained the vote before black women by promising to white men..their staunchest and most reliable allies..that white women would help them maintain the color barrier in the south.

Steinem like many white feminists wishes to live in a paradign of oppression which largely ignores the reality that while women are oppressed by the patriarchy...WHITE women maintain more privilege than any other group in the nation except white men.

Creating a self serving in- between category where they can be oppressed as a woman while demanding that people not look too closely at the details of their privilege. Details which illuminate a picture where the ONLY people in the nation that are more priviliged are white men.

I suspect that Ms Stienem looked at what happened in Iowa and saw her candidate lose and saw gender as the reason. One wonders what she is saying after Mrs Clintons victory in New Hampshire.

Given the history of this nation should black people be writing op eds claiming that Barak didnt win because white folk arent ready?


That's what we call hitting the nail on the head. I've got nothing else to add. It never ceases to amaze me how White feminists never seem to talk about the intersection of race, gender and class in their discussion of "female oppression."

With White feminists the conversation always results in men vs. women but as a woman of color and any person of color can tell you, when it comes to discussing sexism, that's just where the conversation begins, not where it ends.

Why Obama Over Clinton or Even Edwards?

If you identify as a democrat or just plain tired of Repub bullshit then you have three options to chose for President of the United States, two of them truly viable:

1. Hilary Clinton
2. Barack Obama
3. John Edwards

Edwards is effectively out as a presidential possibility but has a chance as a VP.

That leaves Clinton and Obama

The Clinton years gave us NAFTA, Welfare Reform, The Expansion of the Prison Industrial Complex and Don’t Ask Don’t Tell

None of that was good.

If you look at her voting record you know she’s a fan of war, authoritative regimes and a buddy to big business.

None of that is good.

Obama is a relative new comer. He’s been on the wrong side of some important votes has more corporate money funding his campaign then I’d like and has been a bit wishy washy in his voting record but much of that has to do with his desire to run for President and not make any major waves ahead of tome.

I like what Edwards is saying but he still reeks of used car salesman and after four or five years of campaigning hasn't done much to affect the change he speaks of. Obama seems to be (overall) a decent guy AND possess the ability to bring disparate interests together and get something done that’s good for EVERYONE even though he seems to be light on the details.

Not perfect but good.

It’s a toss up. I know what I’m getting with Clinton and that Devil is one I DON”T WANT. In this case I’d rather roll with the Devi I don’t know.

New Hampshire Analysis: Never Underestimate the Power of Color in This Country

It's called the Bradley Effect for a reason.

If you don't know what the Bradley Effect is read here.

Simply put when color is involved polls don't matter. McCain won pretty much exactly as the polls said he would by 9pts.

Obama is looking to lose by 2 to 3 points even though he was projected to win by double digits.

Let that one sink in for a moment.

Color matters in this country. Iowa didn't change that. It just made us forget about it for a moment. You can't change that fact in one win even when every ounce of polling shows otherwise. It is a fact of American life.

Obama isn't out of this thing. South Carolina is around the corner and half of the eligible primary voters are Black. The question is whether they will see this defeat as Obama not being electable of view this as a rallying cry that they have to stand by "their" guy.

If the Clinton's are honest they will recognize that their victory in New Hampshire had nothing to do with the debate or her crying but everything to do with her being a White woman going up against a Black man. She's not going to admit it publically but privately I'm sure her and her husband see it for what it is.

Color matters. And if Obama has a serious chance of being the Democratic nominee and ultimately the President of these Unitede States, he needs understand and accept that fact and paln (and play) accordingly.

Ruffled Feathers

The Clinton's are NOT happy about the way things are shaping up in New Hmpshire:





The heat is up in the kitchen. WAY up. And the Clinton's can't take it. They're blindsided. Didn't see this coming. Everyone though Barack running for President was cute. That he was possibly vying for a Vice Presidential nod, a way to get his name out there for a future run.

Now that it looks like he may deliver them another devastating defeat folks feathers are ruffled. They are baffled and frustrated. Down right angry at the turn of events. Expect things to get nastier in the coming weeks, particularly if Obama has a decisive victory in New Hampshire.

What's at Stake in New Hampshire

What's at stake in New Hampshire?

Everything.

Hillary is on the ropes. She has to win NH if she wants to remain a viable candidate. There's a tidal wave a coming and if she can't get out of the way her campaign is effectively dead in the water.

She's needs to be the Clinton Comeback Kid Part II or money and voters are going to move from her to Obama.



As far as Obama...NH appears to be his to lose. With a double digit lead in the polls and overflowing crowds at all of his stops it does appear that he has NH on lock. But I'm a fan of not counting your chickens before they've hatched.

If he doesn't win the questions of his electability will come back and perhaps his momentum will take a hit but I don't beleive it wil be a death blow. South Carolina is around the corner and with Black women making up about 30% of those eligible to vote in the primary I'd say he has a good shot of winning there. There's also talk of a union endorsement from the culinary union in Nevada that could go to Obama so NH isn't exactly a must win for him but it would be best if he didn't lose.



Edwards is along for the ride. He wants to finish second in NH if possible. Second for him is all but a death blow to the Clinton campaign and Edwards has vowed to stay in the race 'till the end. While I know he wants to be President I suspect he's playing for second place (Vice President) again. For Edwards it must feel like he's always the bridesmaid and never the bride but I'd be happy with an Obama-Edwards ticket and I think may of those voting for Obama wouldn't mind either.

With that said I will be live blogging the New Hampshire Primary results starting tomorrow night at 8:00pm. C-you there.

Edwards Attacks Clinton. Clinton is Pissed.

One of the highlights of last night's debate:



There was some questions before the debate began on what Edwards strategy would be. Would he attack Obama or Clinton. Well that question was answered pretty early on: It was Clinton from the beginning to the end.

His strategy, and I think it is a sound one, is to align himself with Obama and tout their message of change and Hilary as, he said last night, "the forces of status quo." He wants people to think of him in the same vein they think of Obama and hopefully that's enough to beat Clinton in new Hampshire and help to push her out of the race.

This is Clinton's response to Edward's attack. Not her finest moment.



He pushed her buttons and rattled the hell out of her. There's a shot of him looking smug at what he's accomplished and he should be proud, Clinton was angry and on the defensive. It wasn't good. Not good at all.

Let the Blogging Begin: 08' New Hampshire Democratic Debate

8:30

The republicans are still jabbering away. Currently they're talking about how they are different then the Democrats, particularly Senator Obama. Everybody is hammering away at his "Change" motto...suggesting its naive at least in how he states it and once again everyone is commenting on his lack of experience. The thing is though I think his lack of experience, at least his not being a DC insider is what's working for him, not against him. People have heard the talk of his experience and it's not enough to make them not vote for him...thus far at least.

Oil
Repubs talking oil now. Okay I still think Ron Paul is crazy but the man is dead on about the connection between the Iraq war and rising oil prices. McCain talked sensibly about greenhouse gases and needs for alternative energy but no one will say the dreaded C word - Conservation - god forbid someone say that. Of course when mention of windfall tax comes up on oil companies Thompson is like hell no. LOL. Of course.

Hmm...Guliani talking nuclear now. France 80% nuclear - us 20%. Don't know how I feel about that. Huckabee is talking but he isn't saying anything of interest. He suggested only 10 years to energy self sufficiency. Romney has the last word and essentially said that was stupid. Not gonna happen in 10 years but self sufficiency possible eventually. Technological innovation, government planning, yadda, yadda, yadda.

They're done. Now on to the Democrats.

Oh hell. Gibson wants Repubs and Dems all together in some sort of awkward, forced meet and greet. They look uncomfortable and forcibly friendly. Yuck.

Damn if Edwards doesn't look like a used care salesman.

Commercial Break

We're back. We're getting analysis from George Stephanopolous and Diane Sawyer. Mitt on the defensive and no one likes him. Who can blame them...that hair...geez. Seriously nothing much just more analysis of the repubs.

More analysis this time focusing on Huckabee. Now analysis on Romney and his performance. Alright now analysis on Guliani. I don't like that man. Not even a little bit. Now talking about McCain and how he did. His campaign claims he was the "adult in the room." Eh..whatever.

On to Facebook and those folks reactions.

Commercial Break

We're back. More jabbering from Sawyer and Stephanopolus. Nothing worth talking about. George feels Clinton has the toughest job tonight. Feels she's going to try to break Obama on national security issues. He thinks Edwards doesn't know who he's gonna go after tonight and that Richardson is in cahoots with Obama and the Clintons are pissed about that.

Now on to the Debate.

Nuclear Terroism...(what?)...feels it is one of the more pressing issues facing the US today. First topic of debate. They showed images of Osama Bin Laden...sigh.

Obama - feels that we should go after Al Qaeda in Pakistan even if they don't agree. Feels he would strike if Pakistan couldn't or wouldn't help that we should go ahead and take care of it ourself. Feels we should build a new nuclear non-proliferation strategy.

Gibson said he's just like Bush..GO get'em regardless of the sovereignty of the country.

Obama says no. It's about neutralizing the threat of a sworn enemy of the US.

Edwards responds and essentially agrees. But wants a long term plan. Wants to lead a longterm initiative of ridding the world of nuclear weapons.

Richardson says uses diplomacy first. Last thing we need in the musulim world is another action like Iraq. Now talking about the problems of Pakistani leadership. Talks about asking Mushara to step aside. He's talking nonsense.

Gibson points out that I'm just asking do you take the man (Al Qaeda/Osama Bin Laden) out. Richardson sorta says yes.

Clinton...yabbering about what her husband did...talking about why Osama Bin Laden has regrouped feels we need more Nato troops and faster training of the Afghan army because we didn't get him in the past because of a lack of troops.

Wants Mushara to share security issues in Pakistan and feels we need diplomacy to fix the disastrous Bush policies.

Richardson feels we need to be on the side of the Pakistani people not Mushara. Sites our problems with the Shah.

Obama takes it to Iraq. Bush bashing. Notes that our war of choice took our eye off the ball and that's why Al Queda is stronger and why Pakistan is a problem.

Sigh. Gibson asking a what if about possible Nuclear war. Why I ask. Why.

Edwards says we need to immediately find out who attacked us and get'em. Edwards talking about strength and calmness in the face of a major tragedy. Feels that ratcheting up the rhetoric is what would be a big mistake.

Obama - of course we would have to retaliate. Back to talking about rebuilding the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Feels we need to change the mindset that doesn't seek to change long-term threat and just work on short term threats.

Clinton talks about there being a better organizing of the government from homeland security onward. Feels like we haven't done enough to prevent things from being smuggled int the country.

Clinton feels like there can't be safe havens for stateless terrorists and that wherever they are we will get'em. Says we need to make it clear to states that we will come into your territory if you're housing anyone who attacks us.

Richardson continues to stumble about. Talks more diplomacy. Feels that we need to recognize that number of issues the US faces internationally. Talks Bush and how crappy he is and has been.

On to Domestic issues

Package of Social Security and Medicare

Now we're talking Change. Gibson is setting up a showdown between Clinton and Obama. What does Clinton think Obama needs to do and what he needs experience on.

Clinton is basically she's saying she's the top dog with more experience. Hammering him on his healthcare stance. Damn that's the best she can do.

Obama gets a zinger in regarding Hilary and her staffers. Obama clarifies his stance on Healthcare. Clarifies his stance on social security.

Ahh Clinton tries to call Obama a flip flopper....she's going for the jugular as best she can it's a little weak though.

Edwards - speaks of Obama and they're desire for change. Edwards his going to side with Edwards against Clinton. LOL. Calls her the "forces of status quo." LOL.

Edwards goes for Clinton but good.

Clinton on the defensive. Goes to her record. And she's PISSED. And Edwards looks right happy that he got her flusterd. Clinton feels that what we need is someone who has already delivered change.

Richardson - First real laugh of the night - "I've been in hostage negotiations that were more civil than this."

Plays referee and wants everyone to be nice. Advocates for experience.

Edwards talks about what's at stake is the fight for the future of the middle class. Talks about special interests groups are in the way of how to make America run better and if you dont do that then you can't bring about the change necessary for America to succeed.

Obama get folk back involved in self governance. Get them back to feeling that there is hope and that their way of life isn't slipping away.

On to Iraq

Do you think the surge doing any good?

Clinton saying we can dampen down the violence but hasn't worked because there is no political movement which is what the surge was for to begin with.

Richardson - this man likes numbers. Doesn't really answer the questions. Okay now he's making points about the lack of any sort of political involvement so the surge was pointless and a failure.

Feels that until we end this war change can't happen at home until we get the troops out of Iraq.

Obama gets Gibson...we have such low expectations that anything in Iraq looks good. LOL. good point. Feels like all we've done is gone full circle and points out that the only reson why there is less violent because the Sunni militias decided to attempt negotiation instead of continued violence.

Edwards says its the Presidents job to make tough decisions even if it isn't what the military wants. Feels like there won't be political progress until the Iraqis know that we ain't gonna be around forever. Saying he would end combat missions within a year and there would be no permanent bases.

Richardson wants them all out within a year. No questions asked.

Clinton says they agree on getting the troops out as quickly and safely as possible. Feels its a complicated enterprise and feels it has to be done right.

Commercial Break

Clinton says her feelings are hurt that New Hampshire voters like Obama more...lol. Obama points out that she's "likable enough."

OOHHHH Clinton kinda compares Bush and Obama on the sly. LOL.

Clinton feels if you want change then look at what they've done. Clinton feels she is the emobiment of change. Having a woman president IS huge change.

Obama lets them know he wasn't paying that much attention to the Republicans he was watching football. So can't concern himself with what they (repubs) think about him. Says change is about brining people back into government. Bringing dems and repubs together as one. Says that everyone has done good things but none of them has gotten the big things done.

Richardson lets them know he is the only one who has actually balanced budgets. lol. Talking about how to get energy policy in line with what the country needs and feels he can do it even though he didn't get it done when he was Energy Secretary.

Edwards talks about how much he hates lobbyists with special interests. And talks about his working class upbrining and how this issue is passionate for him and how the first thing he would do as President would get rid of the corporations involvement in government. Gets really passionate about the issue.

Obama points out that he stopped lobbyist from buying folk dinner. Gibson points out that they can as long as they are standing up. LOL. Gotcha Obama. LOL.

Clinton talks about her record again. Gets Edward. Gibson points out that everyone talks about change and Clinton points out that her husband did bring about change.

Edwards says screw the lobbyists and special interests.

Obama keeps hammering on getting the American people back into the game.

Richardson back to playing referee. Saying that its this type of bickering that doesn't get anything done. Once again wants everyone to play nice.

Edwards back on the war path about the entrenched money issues. Guy is doing good. Is hammering his issue home. Feels like its a fight for the American people against those entities who are against change.

Now on to Carbon Tax.

Richardson says it's a bad idea. Feels cap and trade is a better idea.

Obama agrees with Richarddson and says a cap and trade system makes more sense that's why he proposed it. Hmm. Obama talk conservation...interesting.

Clinton talks the economy inching towards recession. Also interesting. Feels that we need to use energy to jump start the economy.

The Economy

Obviously Gibson doesn't know how much New Hampshire professors make. LOl.

Edwards is doing that poverty/income gap talk that makes me like him. He gets it. Talks about corporations making too much damn money. Talks about college grads having jobs at risk if out current tax and trade policies continue.

Obama talks about his middle class tax cuts and initiatives. Feels we need a bottom up economic initiative and not a top down initiative.

Richardson talks again about how he's the only one who has governed a state and balanced budgets. Talks job creation and education.

Gibson wants them to tell him something they said that they wish they hadn't said.

Clinton instead chooses to talk about the Republican party. LOL.

Richardson - cracks a joke about his favorite Supreme Court Justice - a man who was against Roe vs. Wade, Civil Rights and any number of other things. LOL.

Edwards - his comment about Hilary's jacket.

Obama - takes Hilary rout of talking about the Republicans.

That's the end. That's all folks. Geez this was difficult. Don't know if I'll do it again. LOL.

Good Night.