Tuesday, January 08, 2008

What's at Stake in New Hampshire

What's at stake in New Hampshire?


Hillary is on the ropes. She has to win NH if she wants to remain a viable candidate. There's a tidal wave a coming and if she can't get out of the way her campaign is effectively dead in the water.

She's needs to be the Clinton Comeback Kid Part II or money and voters are going to move from her to Obama.

As far as Obama...NH appears to be his to lose. With a double digit lead in the polls and overflowing crowds at all of his stops it does appear that he has NH on lock. But I'm a fan of not counting your chickens before they've hatched.

If he doesn't win the questions of his electability will come back and perhaps his momentum will take a hit but I don't beleive it wil be a death blow. South Carolina is around the corner and with Black women making up about 30% of those eligible to vote in the primary I'd say he has a good shot of winning there. There's also talk of a union endorsement from the culinary union in Nevada that could go to Obama so NH isn't exactly a must win for him but it would be best if he didn't lose.

Edwards is along for the ride. He wants to finish second in NH if possible. Second for him is all but a death blow to the Clinton campaign and Edwards has vowed to stay in the race 'till the end. While I know he wants to be President I suspect he's playing for second place (Vice President) again. For Edwards it must feel like he's always the bridesmaid and never the bride but I'd be happy with an Obama-Edwards ticket and I think may of those voting for Obama wouldn't mind either.

With that said I will be live blogging the New Hampshire Primary results starting tomorrow night at 8:00pm. C-you there.

No comments: