Showing posts with label New Hampshire Primary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New Hampshire Primary. Show all posts

Sunday, January 13, 2008

Gender Does Not Trump Race


By now we've all read (or heard about) the Ny Times Op Ed piece written by Gloria Steinem on why Obama had a lead in the New Hampshire polls (she didn't have much to say after Clinton won). Alternet.org jumped into the fray with their article Gloria Steinem Debates Racism and Sexism in the '08 Election. In the comments section of the article a poster leaves this comment:

I have to say that I find self serving this comment made by Steinem


"That's why the Iowa primary was following our historical pattern of making change. Black men were given the vote a half-century before women of any race were allowed to mark a ballot, and generally have ascended to positions of power, from the military to the boardroom, before any women (with the possible exception of obedient family members in the latter). "

The reality which a great many white feminists ignore is that white women have more money, power, and access to the institutions of society than any color of man.

The hierarchy of power in this country looks like this..

white men, white women...men of all colors...women of all colors

White men..the true holders of all reigns of power have always been more allied to white women that ANY color of man.

Within each group and for the society at large the patriarchy prevails but the reality is that white women have had greater access to power and rescources both as a group and through their association with white men.

The primary beneficiaries of post 60s redistributive programs have not been black men but white women.

There are currently 16 female Senators..all white. There is 1 Black senator. Guess who that is?

Of the fortune 500 there are 13 women...again all white. There are 4 black CEOS.

Even when you control for the population bias the facts dont bear out her assertions. Particularly interesting is the result when you combine race and gener..and there are zero non white women in either category.

In terms of the vote lets not forget that during the suffrage movement white women gained the vote before black women by promising to white men..their staunchest and most reliable allies..that white women would help them maintain the color barrier in the south.

Steinem like many white feminists wishes to live in a paradign of oppression which largely ignores the reality that while women are oppressed by the patriarchy...WHITE women maintain more privilege than any other group in the nation except white men.

Creating a self serving in- between category where they can be oppressed as a woman while demanding that people not look too closely at the details of their privilege. Details which illuminate a picture where the ONLY people in the nation that are more priviliged are white men.

I suspect that Ms Stienem looked at what happened in Iowa and saw her candidate lose and saw gender as the reason. One wonders what she is saying after Mrs Clintons victory in New Hampshire.

Given the history of this nation should black people be writing op eds claiming that Barak didnt win because white folk arent ready?


That's what we call hitting the nail on the head. I've got nothing else to add. It never ceases to amaze me how White feminists never seem to talk about the intersection of race, gender and class in their discussion of "female oppression."

With White feminists the conversation always results in men vs. women but as a woman of color and any person of color can tell you, when it comes to discussing sexism, that's just where the conversation begins, not where it ends.

Thursday, January 10, 2008

So I'm Not the Only one who Thinks so

From Editor and Publisher

MSNBC’s “First Read” political blog framed it this way: “In fact, we can only think of three races in which the public polls and the final result were SO off, and they all involved African-American candidates: Bradley's '82 gubernatorial campaign in California, Doug Wilder's surprisingly narrow '89 victory for Virginia governor, and Harvey Gantt's surprise loss for North Carolina Senate.

This isn't about playing a "Race Card" it is however about calling a spade a spade.

Note to Obama: Polls don't matter where you're concerned. Whatever the polls say I'd take off ten points for the Bradley Effect and use the revised number as a representation of where you stand in the polls.

Tuesday, January 08, 2008

New Hampshire Analysis: Never Underestimate the Power of Color in This Country


It's called the Bradley Effect for a reason.

If you don't know what the Bradley Effect is read here.

Simply put when color is involved polls don't matter. McCain won pretty much exactly as the polls said he would by 9pts.

Obama is looking to lose by 2 to 3 points even though he was projected to win by double digits.

Let that one sink in for a moment.

Color matters in this country. Iowa didn't change that. It just made us forget about it for a moment. You can't change that fact in one win even when every ounce of polling shows otherwise. It is a fact of American life.

Obama isn't out of this thing. South Carolina is around the corner and half of the eligible primary voters are Black. The question is whether they will see this defeat as Obama not being electable of view this as a rallying cry that they have to stand by "their" guy.

If the Clinton's are honest they will recognize that their victory in New Hampshire had nothing to do with the debate or her crying but everything to do with her being a White woman going up against a Black man. She's not going to admit it publically but privately I'm sure her and her husband see it for what it is.

Color matters. And if Obama has a serious chance of being the Democratic nominee and ultimately the President of these Unitede States, he needs understand and accept that fact and paln (and play) accordingly.

New Hampshire 2008 Primary Results


Breaking: MSNBC Projects Hilary Clinton as the Winner in New Hampshire

63% Reporting

Hilary Clinton 39%

Barack Obama 36%

John Edwards 17%


61% Reporting

Hilary Clinton 39%

Barack Obama 36%

John Edwards 17%


59% Reporting

Hilary Clinton 39%

Barack Obama 37%

John Edwards 17%


56% Reporting

Hilary Clinton 39%

Barack Obama 37%

John Edwards 17%


54% Reporting

Hilary Clinton 39%

Barack Obama 37%

John Edwards 17%


52% Reporting

Hilary Clinton 39%

Barack Obama 37%

John Edwards 17%


48% Reporting

Hilary Clinton 39%

Barack Obama 36%

John Edwards 17%


47% Reporting

Hilary Clinton 40%

Barack Obama 36%

John Edwards 17%



45% Reporting


Hilary Clinton 39%

Barack Obama 37%

John Edwards 17%


43% Reporting

Hilary Clinton 39%

Barack Obama 37%

John Edwards 17%


40% Reporting

Hilary Clinton 39%

Barack Obama 36%

John Edwards 17%


37% Reporting

Hilary Clinton 39%

Barack Obama 36%

John Edwards 17%


36% Reporting


Hilary Clinton 40%

Barack Obama 36%

John Edwards 17%


32% Reporting


Hilary Clinton 40%

Barack Obama 36%

John Edwards 17%


30% Reporting


Hilary Clinton 40%

Barack Obama 36%

John Edwards 17%


26% Reporting

Hilary Clinton 39%

Barack Obama 36%

John Edwards 17%


23% Reporting


Hilary Clinton 40%

Barack Obama 34%

John Edwards 17%


21% Reporting

Hilary Clinton 40%

Barack Obama 36%

John Edwards 17%


19% Reporting


Hilary Clinton 40%

Barack Obama 36%

John Edwards 17%


16% Reporting

Hilary Clinton 40%

Barack Obama 36%

John Edwards 17%


14% Reporting


Hilary Clinton 40%

Barack Obama 35%

John Edwards 17%


12% Reporting

Hilary Clinton 40%

Barack Obama 36%

John Edwards 17%


12% Reporting


Hilary Clinton 38%

Barack Obama 36%

John Edwards 17%


11% Reporting


Hilary Clinton 38%

Barack Obama 36%

John Edwards 17%

Reminder: Live Blogging New Hampshire Results Starting at 8:00pm


I Will be live blogging the New Hampshire Primary results starting at 8:00pm tonight. This shouldn't be as difficult as the Debate. Here's hoping anyway. LOL.

Ruffled Feathers

The Clinton's are NOT happy about the way things are shaping up in New Hmpshire:





The heat is up in the kitchen. WAY up. And the Clinton's can't take it. They're blindsided. Didn't see this coming. Everyone though Barack running for President was cute. That he was possibly vying for a Vice Presidential nod, a way to get his name out there for a future run.

Now that it looks like he may deliver them another devastating defeat folks feathers are ruffled. They are baffled and frustrated. Down right angry at the turn of events. Expect things to get nastier in the coming weeks, particularly if Obama has a decisive victory in New Hampshire.

What's at Stake in New Hampshire

What's at stake in New Hampshire?

Everything.



Hillary is on the ropes. She has to win NH if she wants to remain a viable candidate. There's a tidal wave a coming and if she can't get out of the way her campaign is effectively dead in the water.

She's needs to be the Clinton Comeback Kid Part II or money and voters are going to move from her to Obama.



As far as Obama...NH appears to be his to lose. With a double digit lead in the polls and overflowing crowds at all of his stops it does appear that he has NH on lock. But I'm a fan of not counting your chickens before they've hatched.

If he doesn't win the questions of his electability will come back and perhaps his momentum will take a hit but I don't beleive it wil be a death blow. South Carolina is around the corner and with Black women making up about 30% of those eligible to vote in the primary I'd say he has a good shot of winning there. There's also talk of a union endorsement from the culinary union in Nevada that could go to Obama so NH isn't exactly a must win for him but it would be best if he didn't lose.



Edwards is along for the ride. He wants to finish second in NH if possible. Second for him is all but a death blow to the Clinton campaign and Edwards has vowed to stay in the race 'till the end. While I know he wants to be President I suspect he's playing for second place (Vice President) again. For Edwards it must feel like he's always the bridesmaid and never the bride but I'd be happy with an Obama-Edwards ticket and I think may of those voting for Obama wouldn't mind either.

With that said I will be live blogging the New Hampshire Primary results starting tomorrow night at 8:00pm. C-you there.

Sunday, January 06, 2008

Obama - No Longer a Candidate for President Now a Full Blown Movement for Change

If you're wondering how he did it in Iowa and how he just may do it in New Hampshire...well....



Now that's a campaign commercial. The man has managed to tap into the hopes and desires of ALL Americans and you know what I fully believe the fact that he is bi-racial is probably more of a help then a hindrance at this point.

I mean he is the walking representation of what it mean for people with major differences to "come together." (So far) He has done what I thought was impossible: Get White folk to see past his black skin.

Impressive. Impressive indeed.

Edwards Attacks Clinton. Clinton is Pissed.

One of the highlights of last night's debate:



There was some questions before the debate began on what Edwards strategy would be. Would he attack Obama or Clinton. Well that question was answered pretty early on: It was Clinton from the beginning to the end.

His strategy, and I think it is a sound one, is to align himself with Obama and tout their message of change and Hilary as, he said last night, "the forces of status quo." He wants people to think of him in the same vein they think of Obama and hopefully that's enough to beat Clinton in new Hampshire and help to push her out of the race.

This is Clinton's response to Edward's attack. Not her finest moment.



He pushed her buttons and rattled the hell out of her. There's a shot of him looking smug at what he's accomplished and he should be proud, Clinton was angry and on the defensive. It wasn't good. Not good at all.

Saturday, January 05, 2008

Let the Blogging Begin: 08' New Hampshire Democratic Debate


8:30

The republicans are still jabbering away. Currently they're talking about how they are different then the Democrats, particularly Senator Obama. Everybody is hammering away at his "Change" motto...suggesting its naive at least in how he states it and once again everyone is commenting on his lack of experience. The thing is though I think his lack of experience, at least his not being a DC insider is what's working for him, not against him. People have heard the talk of his experience and it's not enough to make them not vote for him...thus far at least.

Oil
Repubs talking oil now. Okay I still think Ron Paul is crazy but the man is dead on about the connection between the Iraq war and rising oil prices. McCain talked sensibly about greenhouse gases and needs for alternative energy but no one will say the dreaded C word - Conservation - god forbid someone say that. Of course when mention of windfall tax comes up on oil companies Thompson is like hell no. LOL. Of course.

Hmm...Guliani talking nuclear now. France 80% nuclear - us 20%. Don't know how I feel about that. Huckabee is talking but he isn't saying anything of interest. He suggested only 10 years to energy self sufficiency. Romney has the last word and essentially said that was stupid. Not gonna happen in 10 years but self sufficiency possible eventually. Technological innovation, government planning, yadda, yadda, yadda.

They're done. Now on to the Democrats.

Oh hell. Gibson wants Repubs and Dems all together in some sort of awkward, forced meet and greet. They look uncomfortable and forcibly friendly. Yuck.

Damn if Edwards doesn't look like a used care salesman.

Commercial Break

We're back. We're getting analysis from George Stephanopolous and Diane Sawyer. Mitt on the defensive and no one likes him. Who can blame them...that hair...geez. Seriously nothing much just more analysis of the repubs.

More analysis this time focusing on Huckabee. Now analysis on Romney and his performance. Alright now analysis on Guliani. I don't like that man. Not even a little bit. Now talking about McCain and how he did. His campaign claims he was the "adult in the room." Eh..whatever.

On to Facebook and those folks reactions.

Commercial Break

We're back. More jabbering from Sawyer and Stephanopolus. Nothing worth talking about. George feels Clinton has the toughest job tonight. Feels she's going to try to break Obama on national security issues. He thinks Edwards doesn't know who he's gonna go after tonight and that Richardson is in cahoots with Obama and the Clintons are pissed about that.

Now on to the Debate.

Nuclear Terroism...(what?)...feels it is one of the more pressing issues facing the US today. First topic of debate. They showed images of Osama Bin Laden...sigh.

Obama - feels that we should go after Al Qaeda in Pakistan even if they don't agree. Feels he would strike if Pakistan couldn't or wouldn't help that we should go ahead and take care of it ourself. Feels we should build a new nuclear non-proliferation strategy.

Gibson said he's just like Bush..GO get'em regardless of the sovereignty of the country.

Obama says no. It's about neutralizing the threat of a sworn enemy of the US.

Edwards responds and essentially agrees. But wants a long term plan. Wants to lead a longterm initiative of ridding the world of nuclear weapons.

Richardson says uses diplomacy first. Last thing we need in the musulim world is another action like Iraq. Now talking about the problems of Pakistani leadership. Talks about asking Mushara to step aside. He's talking nonsense.

Gibson points out that I'm just asking do you take the man (Al Qaeda/Osama Bin Laden) out. Richardson sorta says yes.

Clinton...yabbering about what her husband did...talking about why Osama Bin Laden has regrouped feels we need more Nato troops and faster training of the Afghan army because we didn't get him in the past because of a lack of troops.

Wants Mushara to share security issues in Pakistan and feels we need diplomacy to fix the disastrous Bush policies.

Richardson feels we need to be on the side of the Pakistani people not Mushara. Sites our problems with the Shah.

Obama takes it to Iraq. Bush bashing. Notes that our war of choice took our eye off the ball and that's why Al Queda is stronger and why Pakistan is a problem.

Sigh. Gibson asking a what if about possible Nuclear war. Why I ask. Why.

Edwards says we need to immediately find out who attacked us and get'em. Edwards talking about strength and calmness in the face of a major tragedy. Feels that ratcheting up the rhetoric is what would be a big mistake.

Obama - of course we would have to retaliate. Back to talking about rebuilding the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Feels we need to change the mindset that doesn't seek to change long-term threat and just work on short term threats.

Clinton talks about there being a better organizing of the government from homeland security onward. Feels like we haven't done enough to prevent things from being smuggled int the country.

Clinton feels like there can't be safe havens for stateless terrorists and that wherever they are we will get'em. Says we need to make it clear to states that we will come into your territory if you're housing anyone who attacks us.

Richardson continues to stumble about. Talks more diplomacy. Feels that we need to recognize that number of issues the US faces internationally. Talks Bush and how crappy he is and has been.

On to Domestic issues

Package of Social Security and Medicare

Now we're talking Change. Gibson is setting up a showdown between Clinton and Obama. What does Clinton think Obama needs to do and what he needs experience on.

Clinton is basically she's saying she's the top dog with more experience. Hammering him on his healthcare stance. Damn that's the best she can do.

Obama gets a zinger in regarding Hilary and her staffers. Obama clarifies his stance on Healthcare. Clarifies his stance on social security.

Ahh Clinton tries to call Obama a flip flopper....she's going for the jugular as best she can it's a little weak though.

Edwards - speaks of Obama and they're desire for change. Edwards his going to side with Edwards against Clinton. LOL. Calls her the "forces of status quo." LOL.

Edwards goes for Clinton but good.

Clinton on the defensive. Goes to her record. And she's PISSED. And Edwards looks right happy that he got her flusterd. Clinton feels that what we need is someone who has already delivered change.

Richardson - First real laugh of the night - "I've been in hostage negotiations that were more civil than this."

Plays referee and wants everyone to be nice. Advocates for experience.

Edwards talks about what's at stake is the fight for the future of the middle class. Talks about special interests groups are in the way of how to make America run better and if you dont do that then you can't bring about the change necessary for America to succeed.

Obama get folk back involved in self governance. Get them back to feeling that there is hope and that their way of life isn't slipping away.

On to Iraq

Do you think the surge doing any good?

Clinton saying we can dampen down the violence but hasn't worked because there is no political movement which is what the surge was for to begin with.

Richardson - this man likes numbers. Doesn't really answer the questions. Okay now he's making points about the lack of any sort of political involvement so the surge was pointless and a failure.

Feels that until we end this war change can't happen at home until we get the troops out of Iraq.

Obama gets Gibson...we have such low expectations that anything in Iraq looks good. LOL. good point. Feels like all we've done is gone full circle and points out that the only reson why there is less violent because the Sunni militias decided to attempt negotiation instead of continued violence.

Edwards says its the Presidents job to make tough decisions even if it isn't what the military wants. Feels like there won't be political progress until the Iraqis know that we ain't gonna be around forever. Saying he would end combat missions within a year and there would be no permanent bases.

Richardson wants them all out within a year. No questions asked.

Clinton says they agree on getting the troops out as quickly and safely as possible. Feels its a complicated enterprise and feels it has to be done right.

Commercial Break

Clinton says her feelings are hurt that New Hampshire voters like Obama more...lol. Obama points out that she's "likable enough."

OOHHHH Clinton kinda compares Bush and Obama on the sly. LOL.

Clinton feels if you want change then look at what they've done. Clinton feels she is the emobiment of change. Having a woman president IS huge change.

Obama lets them know he wasn't paying that much attention to the Republicans he was watching football. So can't concern himself with what they (repubs) think about him. Says change is about brining people back into government. Bringing dems and repubs together as one. Says that everyone has done good things but none of them has gotten the big things done.

Richardson lets them know he is the only one who has actually balanced budgets. lol. Talking about how to get energy policy in line with what the country needs and feels he can do it even though he didn't get it done when he was Energy Secretary.

Edwards talks about how much he hates lobbyists with special interests. And talks about his working class upbrining and how this issue is passionate for him and how the first thing he would do as President would get rid of the corporations involvement in government. Gets really passionate about the issue.

Obama points out that he stopped lobbyist from buying folk dinner. Gibson points out that they can as long as they are standing up. LOL. Gotcha Obama. LOL.

Clinton talks about her record again. Gets Edward. Gibson points out that everyone talks about change and Clinton points out that her husband did bring about change.

Edwards says screw the lobbyists and special interests.

Obama keeps hammering on getting the American people back into the game.

Richardson back to playing referee. Saying that its this type of bickering that doesn't get anything done. Once again wants everyone to play nice.

Edwards back on the war path about the entrenched money issues. Guy is doing good. Is hammering his issue home. Feels like its a fight for the American people against those entities who are against change.

Now on to Carbon Tax.

Richardson says it's a bad idea. Feels cap and trade is a better idea.

Obama agrees with Richarddson and says a cap and trade system makes more sense that's why he proposed it. Hmm. Obama talk conservation...interesting.

Clinton talks the economy inching towards recession. Also interesting. Feels that we need to use energy to jump start the economy.

The Economy

Obviously Gibson doesn't know how much New Hampshire professors make. LOl.

Edwards is doing that poverty/income gap talk that makes me like him. He gets it. Talks about corporations making too much damn money. Talks about college grads having jobs at risk if out current tax and trade policies continue.

Obama talks about his middle class tax cuts and initiatives. Feels we need a bottom up economic initiative and not a top down initiative.

Richardson talks again about how he's the only one who has governed a state and balanced budgets. Talks job creation and education.

Gibson wants them to tell him something they said that they wish they hadn't said.

Clinton instead chooses to talk about the Republican party. LOL.

Richardson - cracks a joke about his favorite Supreme Court Justice - a man who was against Roe vs. Wade, Civil Rights and any number of other things. LOL.

Edwards - his comment about Hilary's jacket.

Obama - takes Hilary rout of talking about the Republicans.

That's the end. That's all folks. Geez this was difficult. Don't know if I'll do it again. LOL.

Good Night.

Live Blogging the Democratic Debate Beginning at 8:30pm Tonight


I will be Live Blogging the Democratic debate tonight beginning at 8:30pm. The Democratic debate begins at 8:45pm on ABC. This is my first time doing this so we'll see how it goes...lol..but if you're up for reading my version of what's going on feel free to join me tonight at 8:30pm.