Tuesday, January 08, 2008

New Hampshire Analysis: Never Underestimate the Power of Color in This Country


It's called the Bradley Effect for a reason.

If you don't know what the Bradley Effect is read here.

Simply put when color is involved polls don't matter. McCain won pretty much exactly as the polls said he would by 9pts.

Obama is looking to lose by 2 to 3 points even though he was projected to win by double digits.

Let that one sink in for a moment.

Color matters in this country. Iowa didn't change that. It just made us forget about it for a moment. You can't change that fact in one win even when every ounce of polling shows otherwise. It is a fact of American life.

Obama isn't out of this thing. South Carolina is around the corner and half of the eligible primary voters are Black. The question is whether they will see this defeat as Obama not being electable of view this as a rallying cry that they have to stand by "their" guy.

If the Clinton's are honest they will recognize that their victory in New Hampshire had nothing to do with the debate or her crying but everything to do with her being a White woman going up against a Black man. She's not going to admit it publically but privately I'm sure her and her husband see it for what it is.

Color matters. And if Obama has a serious chance of being the Democratic nominee and ultimately the President of these Unitede States, he needs understand and accept that fact and paln (and play) accordingly.

8 comments:

MAGNIFICENT BASTARD said...

lol...play accordingly indeed....only the dull and stupid fight head on, so should get fresh and play preacher by th time he hits us down South. Then as they say my dear "it's a wrap". Cheers...Bravo love.

David Sullivan said...

I linked here from Plez's spot.

Your race argument does not hold up because Iowa is whiter than New Hampshire, not by much, but whiter none the less. According to your argument Obama should not have won Iowa. Barack was 20 points down to Hillary in every poll in Iowa a month before the Iowa cauceses. The reason why McCain won by the margin that was "predicted"was because many independents assumed that Barack was going to win in a landslide and chose to vote in the republican primary insted of the democratic primary thus taking votes away from Obama. Also the last poll published on Monady was taken before the debate on Saturday night where Obama frankly, was lame.

I am an Obama supporter and am not naive to think that race will not be a factor somewhere along the line and wasn't a factor in NH. But out of the 13% points that he lost maybe 1% had to do with some NH racists deciding that I would rather have a white woman over a black man. Why didn't a white man like Edwards do any better? He was projected to get 22% of the vote and only got 17% Did you ever think that the bump Hillary got was not due to race, but due to more people voting for Hillary insted of Edwards? Why do you assume that the extra votes Clinton got were ones that were slated for Obama? If "white" america weren't ready for a black president then in white bread places like Iowa and New Hampshire would have had Barack coming in fourth. Keep the race card buried in the deck until its necessary ala Hillary's crocodile tears. lol. Check out my post about Obama, if you haven't tuned me out by now.

JJ said...

Call it like you see it. I'l call it like I see it.

In my experience White Folk rarely see race as a factor in anything.

And Iowa's caucuses work in a different manner then a primary...those dynamics make a difference.

Also Iowa caucuses are Public not private affairs...also a factor.

So feel free to think it was crocodile tears or because independents were just so sure of an Obama win they switched to McCain.

I'll stick by my Bradley effect. Something I touched on a couple days back when I said Obama might lose NH and not to count your chicken before they'd hatched.

David Sullivan said...

Polls are fickle. What effect caused Edwards to finish 5 points lower than projected?

and are you telling me in this PC world we live in that "white folk rarely see race as a factor in anything"? White folk are sooo race sensitive that you can't even call some one black anymore they have to be African American. Most white people I know are afraid to approach black people because they know black people don't trust them and hate them because of the sins of their ancestors (recent and distant).

I respect your opinion, but don't think for a second that many black folk aren't going to vote solely based on race. I am of the opinion that anyone who takes the time to go to a voting booth these days are doing so because they have researched the issues and are making an informed choice, not based on race, gender etc...did you think that many of those NH white folk who said they would vote for Barack just didn't make it to the polls?

Barack will win this thing hands down and maybe that will speak to where white people, the most common color of people living in the good ole USA, stand on the Bradley Effect.

JJ said...

Is there a reason why you're trying to school me on race in America?

LOl. Okay.

Edwards projected at 20% in the polls that I saw. Finishing at 17% is pretty close to that.

Like I said...you're entitled to your opinion.

And all those issues u cite are white people issues...has no bearing on me or any other black person.

And some of us prefer to be called Black NOT African-American. Thanks.

Oh and I'm actually an Edwards fan not Obama...but I'll take him over Clinton anyday.

jaycaruso said...

It's interesting. I have attempted to get some Democratic voters to honestly answer that if things were going to be so different than 2004 and if so many Democratic voters are truly progressive as they claim to be, they'd be lining up to vote for Obama.

My view is pretty simple: Too many Democrats don't want to acknowledge the latent racism that exists within a large portion of their base. While they're comfortable with a white woman running the country, they're not comfortable with a black man doing so.

David Sullivan said...

Thats the point I was making about "Black". All my black friends want to be called black, not African American, thats a white thing that makes some white people feel better. I see things in black and white, but after my initial view I see the person, not the skin color.

I would never try to school anyone except maybe on the golf course, lol. :)

The Breaking Point said...

Maybe Barack can almost shed some tears and get it crackin' again in Nevada.