Tuesday, January 08, 2008
New Hampshire Analysis: Never Underestimate the Power of Color in This Country
It's called the Bradley Effect for a reason.
If you don't know what the Bradley Effect is read here.
Simply put when color is involved polls don't matter. McCain won pretty much exactly as the polls said he would by 9pts.
Obama is looking to lose by 2 to 3 points even though he was projected to win by double digits.
Let that one sink in for a moment.
Color matters in this country. Iowa didn't change that. It just made us forget about it for a moment. You can't change that fact in one win even when every ounce of polling shows otherwise. It is a fact of American life.
Obama isn't out of this thing. South Carolina is around the corner and half of the eligible primary voters are Black. The question is whether they will see this defeat as Obama not being electable of view this as a rallying cry that they have to stand by "their" guy.
If the Clinton's are honest they will recognize that their victory in New Hampshire had nothing to do with the debate or her crying but everything to do with her being a White woman going up against a Black man. She's not going to admit it publically but privately I'm sure her and her husband see it for what it is.
Color matters. And if Obama has a serious chance of being the Democratic nominee and ultimately the President of these Unitede States, he needs understand and accept that fact and paln (and play) accordingly.