Sunday, February 10, 2008

Where Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama Stand on the Momentum Meter

A commenter over on the Carpetbagger Report had a great analysis of momentum and where it stands (and who it stands with) in the democratic race:

I think that for Obama to get where he is right now, he has had created momemtum working in his favor. It has got to the point where it has beaten HRC yet, but considering where he was a just a couple of months ago, it is definetely there.

On the otherhand I don’t think HRC has had any in her campaign yet. From the original position of trumphant inevitablity, they have had a few wins but nothing like the level of support that they need to turn back the Obama tide. This doesn’t mean she still can’t scrape a win, but I don’t think momentum is now any part of her campaign strategy so they will down play momentum as much as possible. They must have loved this section title of yours today.

What has been most interesting for me of the campaign thus far is trying to work out the original HRC strategy and I have to wonder if there really was one. She has apperaed for quite some time now in a purely tactical, reactive mode, (the MSNBC drama is exactly that) and that in itself will never lead to momentum, because each one of these dramas leads to as many people thinking negatively about her as positively. And the great ironey is that it smacks up against her touting her 35 years experience. Maybe her 35 years, (and mostly with Bill), has been a whoile series of tactical reactions to everything that has gone on around her and that is how she thinks, which leads me to wonder if some form of “political paranoria” hasn’t set in. If not saying that isn’t justified from her viewpoint, but cause and effect are not entirely out of her control.

Lou Gerstner said, “Strategy is execution” and on that basis, Obama is currently in a league of his own.

What people don't understand is that momentum doesn't happen overnight. Like a tidal wave there is big build up and then it comes crashing down. If Obama sweeps the Potomac Primary then the wave would have crested and will come down on HRC and her campaign.

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